Exponential laws of computing growth

Abstract

Moore's Law is one small component in an exponentially growing planetary computing ecosystem.

References

1. Anderson, R.G. How Well Do Wages Follow Productivity Growth? Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, St. Louis, MO, 2007; https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/07/ES0707.pdf
2. Asanovic, K., Bodik, R., Demmel, J., Keaveny, T., Keutzer, K., Kubiatowicz, J., Morgan, N., Patterson, D., Sen, K., Wawrzynek, J., Wessel, D., and Yelick, K. A view of the parallel computing landscape. Commun. ACM 52, 10 (Oct. 2009), 56--67.
3. Bass, F. A new product growth model for consumer durables. Management Science 15, 5 (Jan. 1969), 215--227.
4. Bass, F., Krishnan, T., and Jain, D. Why the Bass model fits without decision variables. Marketing Science 13, 3 (Summer 1994), 203--223.
5. Colwell, R. The chip design game at the end of Moore's Law. In Proceedings of the IEEE/ACM Symposium on High-Performance Chips (Hot Chips) (Palo Alto, CA, Aug. 25--27). ACM Press, New York, 2013; http://www.hotchips.org/wp-content/uploads/hc_archives/hc25/HC25.15-keynote1-Chipdesign-epub/HC25.26.190-Keynote1-ChipDesignGame-Colwell-DARPA.pdf
6. Dennard, R., Gaensslen, F., Yu, H.-N., Rideout, V.L., Bassous, E., and LeBlanc, A. Design of ion-implanted mosfets with very small physical dimensions. IEEE Journal of Solid State Circuits (1974), 256--268.
7. Denning, P. The choice uncertainty principle. Commun. ACM 50, 11 (Nov. 2007), 9--14.
8. Denning, P. and Tichy, W. Highly parallel computation. Science 250 (Nov. 1990), 1217--1222.
9. Dennis, J. and Misunas, D. A preliminary architecture for a basic data-flow processor. In Proceedings of the Second Annual Symposium on Computer Architecture ISCA) (Houston, TX, Jan. 20--22). ACM Press, New York, 1975, 126--132.
10. Economist. A deeper law than Moore's? Economist blog (Oct. 10, 2011); http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/10/computing-power
11. Esmaeilzadeh, H., Blem, E., St. Amant, R., Sankaralingam, K., and Burger, D. Dark silicon and the end of multicore scaling. In Proceedings of the 38^th International Symposium on Computer Architecture (ISCA) (San Jose, CA, June 4--8). ACM Press, New York, 2011, 365--376.
12. Feynman, R. The Pleasure of Finding Things Out: The Best Short Works of Richard P. Feynman. Penguin Books, New York, 2001.
13. Flores, F. and Denning, P. Emergent innovation. Interview by Peter J. Denning. Commun. ACM 58, 6 (June 2015), 28--31.
14. Gentry, L. and Calantone, R. Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Technological Innovation: Choosing the Appropriate Diffusion Models for New Products and Services Before Launch. Faculty Research & Creative Works, Paper 662. Missouri University of Science and Technology, Rolla, MO, 2007; http://scholarsmine.mst.edu/faculty_work/662
15. Grove, A. Only the Paranoid Survive. Doubleday, New York, 1996.
16. Gustafson, J. Re-evaluating Amdahl's Law. Commun. ACM 31, 5 (May 1988), 522--533.
17. Henderson, B. The Experience Curve---Reviewed (Part II). BCG Perspectives (Jan. 1973); https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/classics/corporate_finance_corporate_strategy_portfolio_management_the_experience_curve_reviewed_history/
18. Hill, M. Amdahl's Law in the multicore era. IEEE Computer 41, 7 (July 2008), 33--38.
19. IBM. Announcement of SyNAPSE Chip: New IBM SyNAPSE Chip Could Open Era of Vast Neural Networks. IBM, San Jose, CA, Aug. 7, 2014; http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/44529.wss
20. IEEE Spectrum. Special Report on 50 Years of Moore's Law. IEEE Spectrum (Apr. 2015); http://spectrum.ieee.org/static/special-report-50-years-of-moores-law
21. Jones, K. Growth of Social Media v2.0. Search Engine Journal Blog, Nov. 15, 2013; https://www.searchenginejournal.com/growth-social-media-2-0-infographic/77055/
22. Koomey, J., Berard, S., Sanchez, M., and Wong, H. Implications of historical trends in the electrical efficiency of computing. IEEE Annals of the History of Computing 33, 3 (July--Sept. 2011) 46--54.
23. Koomey, J. More on efficiency trends in computing, from my forthcoming book, blog, including Koomey Law graph and pointer to creative commons attribution-noncommercial-noderivative license, Dec. 11, 2011; http://www.koomey.com/post/14466436072
24. Kumar, A., Baisya, R.J., Shankar, R., and Momaya, K. Diffusion of mobile communications: Application of Bass Diffusion Model to BRIC countries. Journal of Scientific & Industrial Research 66 (Apr. 2007), 312--316.
25. Kurzweil, R. The Age of Spiritual Machines. Penguin Books, New York, 1999.
26. Moore, G. Cramming more components onto integrated circuits. Electronics 38, 8 (Apr. 1965), 114--117.
27. Panth, S., Samadi, K., Du, Y., and Lim, S.K. Design and CAD methodologies for low-power gate-level monolithic 3D ICs. In Proceedings of the ACM/IEEE International Symposium on Low Power Electronics and Design (La Jolla, CA, Aug. 11--13). ACM Press, New York, 2014, 171--176;
28. Rogers, E. Diffusion of Innovations, Fifth Edition. Free Press, New York, 2003.
29. Shalf, J. and Leland, R. Computing beyond Moore's Law. IEEE Computer 48, 12 (Dec. 2015), 14--23.
30. Sutherland, I. The tyranny of the clock. Commun. ACM 55, 10 (Oct. 2012), 35--36.
31. Thackary, A., Brock, D., and Jones, R. Moore's Law: The Life of Gordon Moore, Silicon Valley's Quiet Revolutionary. Basic Books, New York, 2015.
32. Ubiquity. Ubiquity Symposium on the Technological Singularity, 2014; http://ubiquity.acm.org/symposia.cfm
33. Wu, J., Shen, Y.-L., Reinhardt, K., Szu, H., and Dong, B. A nanotechnology enhancement to Moore's Law. Applied Computational Intelligence and Soft Computing 2013, Article ID 426962;

Index Terms

• Computer systems organization

  • Architectures

• Hardware

  • Emerging technologies

  • Integrated circuits

• Theory of computation

  • Models of computation