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A Vast Machine: Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global WarmingApril 2010
Publisher:
  • The MIT Press
ISBN:978-0-262-01392-5
Published:30 April 2010
Pages:
528
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Abstract

Global warming skeptics often fall back on the argument that the scientific case for global warming is all model predictions, nothing but simulation; they warn us that we need to wait for real data, "sound science." In A Vast Machine Paul Edwards has news for these skeptics: without models, there are no data. Today, no collection of signals or observationseven from satellites, which can "see" the whole planet with a single instrumentbecomes global in time and space without passing through a series of data models. Everything we know about the world's climate we know through models. Edwards offers an engaging and innovative history of how scientists learned to understand the atmosphereto measure it, trace its past, and model its future. Edwards argues that all our knowledge about climate change comes from three kinds of computer models: simulation models of weather and climate; reanalysis models, which recreate climate history from historical weather data; and data models, used to combine and adjust measurements from many different sources. Meteorology creates knowledge through an infrastructure (weather stations and other data platforms) that covers the whole world, making global data. This infrastructure generates information so vast in quantity and so diverse in quality and form that it can be understood only by computer analysismaking data global. Edwards describes the science behind the scientific consensus on climate change, arguing that over the years data and models have converged to create a stable, reliable, and trustworthy basis for establishing the reality of global warming.

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Contributors
  • University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

Recommendations

Reviews

Jeffrey B. Putnam

Thanks to newspapers, television, blogs, scientific journals, political rallies, and even movies, it is unlikely that anyone reading this review will be unfamiliar with global warming and the controversies surrounding it. This book is not about the controversy-except tangentially-or the climate models; instead, it provides a context for the lay reader to become more informed about the data being used and how it is generated, modeled, and improved. As the author states, "it's models almost all the way down." In particular, very little of the raw data collected by weather stations, satellites, and balloons is usable as it is produced. Interpretation and reinterpretation is the norm. Measurements may not be taken at hourly intervals, and weather stations are rarely conveniently located at the grid points on which weather and climate models are based. Historically, sensors and reports are rarely consistent: a temperature sensor might find itself cooled by the shade of a new building or warmed by an asphalt parking lot; the measuring device might change from being a mercury thermometer to a thermocouple sensor; ocean temperatures may be taken at the surface or down a ways; weather balloons travel on the wind, so the temperatures they report at 5,000 meters and 10,000 meters are unlikely to be over the same spot on the surface; and satellite data is voluminous, but not always clear-cut or easy to interpret. Climatologists must live with the fact that raw data is interpreted and reinterpreted. This is true for most climate data, but particularly for historical data. Such data is rarely clean in the way we might expect scientific data to be clean, and it requires a good bit of modeling to be reasonably understood and used. The book nicely covers how weather prediction and climate models have shaped computing, with background that many readers may not know, and there is some information-though very few details-on how climate and weather models work. Early on, the author states his belief that we are in a period of man-made climate change and that this is a problem we must face or we risk very serious problems in the future. That being said, this book was not written to advance this claim, and both those who agree and those who disagree with the idea that anthropogenic global warming is a problem should read it. The book also covers the climate change debate, but this is one of the weaker sections; it might be slow reading for those who are not interested in these discussions. On the whole, this is a very good and informative read on the problems in atmospheric modeling and the way computers are-and have been-used in the process. Online Computing Reviews Service

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